The Fourth Turning
It really does seem like we are in the midst of a fourth turning...
The “Fourth Turning” is a concept from the 1997 book by William Strauss and Neil Howe, which proposes that history follows a cyclical pattern of four generational “turnings,” each lasting about 20-25 years. These turnings are:
1. First Turning (High): A period of strong institutions and societal unity.
2. Second Turning (Awakening): A time of questioning institutions and emphasizing individualism.
3. Third Turning (Unraveling): Increased skepticism and fragmentation of society.
4. Fourth Turning (Crisis): A major upheaval that reshapes society, requiring collective action.
The Fourth Turning is marked by significant crises, such as wars or economic collapses, leading to a new societal order.
The status quo with regards to NATO, the EU, and the economic cooperation between the US and China seems to be in the midst of a secular shift, and what comes next remains unclear. At the same time you have right wing politicians coming into power across the world, in no small part as a response to increasing political division and economic inequality.
Great cycles are hard for us to understand because they move in such large arcs. If a turning is 25 years that's more than half my life knowing a certain way of things, and for young people its all they know. A reveral of everything you know to be true is a difficult thing to endure and to understand.
I do think we are exiting a period of relative peace and prosperity that was guarded by globalization and aligned incentives, and entering one where those economic incentives are being unwound and there is a build toward hot war. There is danger ahead. I wish it wasn't so but humankind doesn't seem to be able to make major global transtions without upheaval and conflict.
This is a good article by Ray Dalio. I can't disagree with his take though its always wise to remember that there are no certainties, only probabilities.
Ray Dalio
